Wednesday, July 11, 2007

9 Point Lead by Conservatives!

It seems Layton is popular in Montreal, okay but when you read the actual article, they contort the statistics so badly that you would actually think the Conservatives were in trouble, not the Liberals.

In Quebec, the Bloc was at 31 per cent, down a healthy 11 percentage points from its level of support in the January 2006 federal election. The Liberals were pegged at 17 per cent in Quebec, down three from the last Environics poll conducted in March, while the Tories sat at 28 per cent, up two percentage points from the last poll and 3 points higher than they scored in the election. The NDP nudged up to 12 per cent from 11 in the last poll and the Green Party moved up 2 percentage points to 11 in Quebec. The undecided rate was pegged at 10 per cent.

Okay, it's not clear from the article, but here are the results:

Bloc 31%
Cons 28%
Libs 17%
NDP 12%
Greens 11%

But, the article headline is "Layton on a roll"??? How about the Bloc tanking (11% down)? Or Conservatives grabbing Liberal voters? Wow the NDP is at 12%, yup up 1%, that's a huge roll, NOT!

Standings were as follows: Conservatives, 37 per cent; Liberals, 28; NDP, 17; Greens, 11 and Bloc Quebecois slipping to 7 per cent.

Okay, in a survey with 2,021 Canadians across the country for a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points 95 times out of 100, in other words twice as big as normal for a survey, the Conservatives are 9 points ahead of the Liberals, but still they yak about the Conservatives not being above the 40% level for a majority. Well, more interesting is that the Liberals are below 30%. Ouch, that has to hurt, and with Dion as their leader, I don't see it getting any better for the Liberals.

A 9% lead during the summer, is huge, but SHHH, don't tell the media, they will only shrill even harder for the Liberals, OH wait, they already do! They can't shrill much harder, and still try to appear non-partisan, that 9% must burn their butts, because I have not heard the survey results reported by either CBC or CTV, not even a whisper. Funny, if the Liberals were at 37% we would be hearing about it every 15 minutes. No bias in our media, nope.

No comments: