I think the polls showing Wildrose surging are excellent, but you need to look at the last election results, riding by riding, to get a realistic view of how many ridings the Wildrose might win. Elections Alberta has all the results, by polling station if you care to dig that deep.
When you make the assumption that it is mainly former PC voters who are going to vote Wildrose, it brings up some interesting situations. Take just three Edmonton ridings, and assume that 50% of the PC vote will now go to the Wildrose.
The Liberals in Redmonton must be feeling good, because the split vote could mean that all three of these ridings would go Liberal, and other ridings in Edmonton are in play as well. This assumes that all Liberal and NDP voters still vote the same way, as they have no reason to change their votes. Will Liberals switch their votes to the PC's because they feel Alison is more RED than BLUE? Interesting possibility.
Given that many Conservative/NDP/Liberal voters stayed home last election, it is hard to predict any riding. If the voter turnout increases, no riding is predictable. This is a really exciting election. Momentum is important, and Wildrose has that momentum right now. I hope it gets stronger as the election goes on. Rural Alberta can change everything by shifting their votes to Wildrose. Those ridings are very much in play, and the Liberal/NDP are not a factor. The change starts with rural voters, and Calgary. Get out there, help your Wildrose candidate, you can make the difference this election!
Get out the Wildrose vote.