Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Election? Shhh, Don't Let The Opposition Know This!

So, the media are pulling for an election to raise revenues. Face it, the media has become boring, and during the weekends they are home swilling the wine while bloggers are still actively posting interesting articles you might never read in the Toronto Star. The media loves polls, that's why every media outlet has a daily poll, to test the mood of Canadians.

Some polls show the Liberals and Conservatives tied, others show one ahead of the other, though lately it's only the Conservatives who seem to be polling ahead. So, let's forget the polls and look back on the 2008 elections. The Conservatives needed 155 seats for a majority, they got 143. So they were short by 12 MP's. Let's put independent Andre in the Conservative win column, so they really only needed 11 MP's. Here is the shocker, when you look at the close races, they only needed under 7000 votes more. If 7000 more Conservatives would have voted we would have had a majority.

Vancouver South 22
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 68
Brampton West 231
Welland 300
Edmonton-Strathcona 463
Western Arctic 523
Vancouver Kingsway 745
Brampton-Springdale 773
Burnaby-Douglas 798
Sault Ste. Marie 1111
New Westminster-Coquitlam 1488

Add them up, you get 6522. Less than 7000 votes. The 11 ridings we needed were less than 7000 votes away. One thing that all Canadians should take note of, is that NONE of those close ridings were in the province of Quebec. Let me repeat that for all those lefties who think that Quebec actually plays a part in getting a majority, no close ridings were in Quebec. As a matter of fact, if you look at the Bloc votes, not even the Liberals riding as high as 30% in that province will convert those polls into actual gains in ridings. The media loves to slam Alberta for voting Conservative, but look at the Quebec numbers and they are just as bad, if not worse, but no one dares mention that little fact. Quebec is not needed anymore for a majority, because they vote for the Bloc, and cut down the votes for the traditional parties. The Bloc usually wins about 50 of the 75 seats in Quebec, which reduces the Bloc to a rump party like the NDP. They will never be in power, and so have no impact except that the Bloc MP's will get huge pensions from the Canada they want to separate from.

If Danny Williams hadn't gone on a rampage against the Conservatives, we might have had a majority. Now I love Newfoundlanders, but do you have to be such followers? Could you not vote Williams provincially and Conservatives federally? Speaking of the Atlantic provinces, what have the Liberals ever done for you? Seriously, tell me, post a comment telling me how you are better off because you vote Liberal. You had 13 years of Liberal rule, how did that work out for you? Did the cod suddenly reappear? Why is my PEI husband still here in Alberta earning his living? Will Atlantic Canada ever wake up and realize that the Liberals are users, and they have been using you for years. PEI has 140,000 people and they have 4 MP's, Alberta has over 3 million people and they only have 28 MP's, or 107,000 people per MP. How is that fair? According to those statistics PEI should only have ONE MP! They can prevent a Conservative majority because they get more MP's than they should.

I am tired of the east dictating who should be in power. Most Atlantic provinces along with Quebec do not have the population to support the power they have. Tiny PEI has 3 times the power over Alberta in our confederation then they should. WHY?

Funny I don't hear the judges talking about our Charter of Rights when it comes to some provinces having an unequal share of MP's for their population. I thought our system was based on representation by population. Silly me.


Patsplace said...

Good points and points well taken. It's articles like the one that you wrote, if it's seen by more people in Canada, that changes will happen.

The Eastern lack of proportional MP's is annoying, especially when they control the election of the Leader of the country.

Keep up the good work.

Best regards,

Eskimo said...

Danny Williams is a windbag and conservative in name only. He does his provinces citizens a total disservice in perpetuating Nfld. as a welfare case.

Bring on the election, it's time for a Harper majority even for the sole reason of being entertained by the liberal (and MSM) hysteria. Maybe they'd threaten to move to Obamaland like the Hollywierdos said they would move up here if Bush won!

It's also time to take back Edmonton-Strathcona (Lordy, what I'd pay to see Gayle's pompous swollen head explode over this one!)

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Iggy is in a very unenviable position. He needs to save face with the hawks in his party but the numbers just aren't going his way.

If he forces an election, the Canadian voters will punish him.

If he doesn't the Rae camp will.

Either way, he's in big trouble.

Gabby in QC said...

I posted this comment during last year's election campaign in answer to a commenter wondering if we would ever see a majority government again. I believe it is relevant here.

I’m not convinced majority governments are still possible, given the number of parties vying for votes, low voter turnout, and the growing willingness of some electors to become spoilers, voting against a party solely to prevent that party's victory.

The problem will become even more severe if proportional representation is brought in, which IMO would be a mistake. According to one comment I heard (where ?) the Greens would have won 22 seats with the 6% vote they got in the 2008 election. Is that what we want to see in Parliament, a series of small parties all competing to get their programs passed? Nothing would ever get done. If the atmosphere is toxic now, imagine what it would be like with more parties in the House.

If there’s to be some reform of Parliament, I would favour instead having ridings with approximately the same number of constituents. For example, look at the number of constituents per riding in PEI:

Cardigan 34 777

Charlottetown 32 245

Egmont 35 208

Malpeque 33 064

Now look at the number of constituents per riding in B.C.:

Abbotsford 81,101

Burnaby-Douglas 78 481 (2006)

Vancouver-Quadra 86 513 (2006)
Victoria 87 546 (2006)
And a couple in Alberta:
Edmonton East 90 861
Calgary East 79 435
See what I mean?

As you've pointed out, Hunter, that kind of problem needs fixing.

There's a bill still being studied on seat redistribution. But that measure, Bill C-22, did not get beyond 2nd reading yet.
 I haven't read all the details involved in the bill, but it does add some seats to Alberta, B.C. and Ontario. Hopefully it will finally receive Royal Assent.

wilson said...

Notice how kady (Macleans) stopped her much loved poll number crunching blogs as soon as the Ipsos poll came out, showing Cons at 39% !

Well now CROP (believe it) shows Cons at 17% in Quebec....the polls that show Libs and Cons tied have Cons around 12%.
Perhaps Ipsos did catch the front wave of a favourable turn to the Cons!!!

But most disturbing for both the BLOC and Libs, is the Dippers numbers in Quebec!!
18% up from 17% and holding!!!
Go jack go...split that lefty vote, get more Dippers in Parliament. I'm with yah!!!

In the 2008 election, PMSH and the Conservatives won a majority in the ROC.

wilson said...

Mr 'I will be Prime Minister' Ignatieff is getting what he deserves Joanne.
When yah push and shove your way ruthlessly to the front of the line, someone is gonna grab you by the arm and say 'not so fast buddy'.

The backroom boys were so sure the recession would crush PMSH that they calculated pushing Iffy 'in' was a no risk move.

NEVER underestimate Stephen Harper.

Eskimo said...

I've always said that proportional representation is the battle cry of the sore loser.

It usually rears its ugly head right after poll results show a lefty getting crushed at the ballot box.

The liberals and dippers praying for a recession was disgusting.

frmgrl said...

Yesterday on the Rutherford show,Darrell Bricker from Ipsos was on. He stands by their poll. He couldn't understand where the other guys were getting their numbers. It was in the 9:00 am segment because my daughter and I went to Calgary and we left shortly after 10. Didn't listen to the radio after that.
Tim Powers was on this morning at 9:30 about election speculation. Good insights.

brothersmartmouth said...

Jane Taber said she expects an election this fall. Yawn,.,.

hunter said...

Funny, no one from any Atlantic provinces told me how they were better off with the Liberals. Not one told me what the Liberals had done for them.

I know people from our Atlantic provinces are not stupid, so what gives with this Trudeau type worship?